PURE SPECULATION
Much Ado About Some WMDs

Commentary by M.G. Howard

LOS ANGELES -- April 16, 2003 -- Three and a half weeks into Operation Iraqi Freedom and the war, if one can call it that, has cultivated the exact success military planners had hoped for, with some notable exceptions. The scurried flight of top Iraqi leadership to Syria has left the US Administration to wonder whether Saddam had a pre-arranged deal with Syria's President Bashar Assad to accept and hide the vast weapons of mass destruction arsenal.

Is this Saddam's final bow to the world community? Will my appetite for silly pictures of Saddam Hussein posing as a strong, defiant leader with a bad mustache no longer find satisfaction on the evening news? It looks as though the Iraqi leadership's DB Cooper-esque vanishing act will be their most damaging maneuver against the United States. Surely more effective than any "brilliant" tactical battlefield move, such as dressing their soldiers up like women, or pretending to surrender, and then firing on approaching US soldiers.

To George Bush, the disappearance of the old regime and their deadly toys could prove politically lethal. Should the Administration's efforts to find the WMD be unsuccessful, the legitimacy of their action in Iraq will remain questioned throughout the world.* The already enraged Arab street will have more reason than ever to rally against "the West," guided along by ghastly images, biased reporting, and provocative rhetoric on Al-Jazeera. The big question to be mulled over is how will Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey react when George Bush's cabinet arrives at the decision that military intervention in Syria is imperative?

It has been widely reported in the media outlets such as the Washington Post and in intelligence circles, that the bulk of Saddam's arsenal passed into Syria some time ago.** It was also reported, by the hauntingly accurate DebkaFile, that Saddam had possibly already fled Baghdad to one of two pre-rented Syrian resorts.*** Along with his prestigious sons, the "defiant" Saddam Hussein had planned ahead of time to vacate Iraq soon after the invasion began, steering clear of any possible US Tomahawks and Bunker-busters. Joining their "fearless leader" on the Great Iraqi Leadership Exodus of 2003, are his top generals, Ba'ath party members, scientists, and his most loyal henchman. All in all, the pre-war threats have actually elevated, as Saddam is one country closer to Israel - which he would to like to eradicate from this earth - and to terrorist groups that flourish in Syria. The Hizbollah and Al-Qaeda organizations currently offer Saddam his most viable arm for striking against US interests.

Count on seeing guerrilla attacks in Iraq during and following Easter, coupled with attacks against US interests in Turkey. The goal of such operations will be to scare the US homefront into thinking we have gotten ourselves stuck in a new Vietnam, and to portray to the Arab populations a view that the US occupying force is under fire from Iraqis who don't want them around to help rebuild. Meanwhile, Saddam and his leadership can stand on the sidelines, pulling strings while under the protection of French and Russian intelligence services.

All of this leads me to wonder why the US Administration and military planners didn't act more swiftly to expose and confront the emerging problem. Fearful of a backlash that could include the loss of more key allies, the Administration is caught in a conundrum of aggresively seeking to collect the rotted apples of a corrupt regime, while running the risk of tipping over the whole cart - that being a long lasting peace in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Saddam will rest on a pillow provided by his former adversary's son, Bashar Assad, who has overcome his hatred for a fellow Ba'athist party member in light of a highly profitable, under the table, "discount oil" program that netted all parties, including the French and Russians, billions upon billions of dollars. Documents obtained by US Forces in and around Baghdad already implicate Syria. Now, GB 43's Administration must find proof of French and Russian involvement, in order to wield a wild card against Chirac and Putin. Either they will have to allow the US to collect all 54 remaining cards in the Most Wanted Regime Members Deck, or face the consequences of having their criminal actions and veiled motives exposed to the world.

After 10 more Russian billionaires joined the Forbes 2003 list of the the Richest Men in the World, the stance taken by Vladimir Putin to counter US action in Iraq should come as no surprise, seeing as five of those ten made their money on oil.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am excited to see the Russian economy moving past the growing pains of a change to capitalism. But the fact that there were only 7 billionaires from Russia on the list before this, and within a short time that number more than doubled, leads me to raise an eyebrow. Even more so when one realizes how deeply interwoven the ties are between big money and big politics in Russia, where it is common for the elite to shuttle between corporate suites and public office. This is an area where the Bush Administration too has experience.

On a polar opposite level, the threat of chemical, and more so biological, weaponry seems to now be an area in which barely anyone has any practical experience. As evidenced in Frontline's April 14th episode, need for immediate action, at this point in history, to collect, dispose, and prevent the proliferation of WMD, is a challenge governments will be confronting for years to come.

The final seizure of Saddam's weapons in Syria will be another major step forward. The ambitious US Administration runs the risk of getting tripped up by third parties, or should I say, co-antagonists. But the risk of inaction, coupled with the harping of critics asking, "where's the beef?" sets the stage for a pie flying right in the face of George Bush. As long as he keeps his head in the poker game and doesn't kick back for a pretzel, I think the US Administration will come out of this all right.

----

Editor's Notes:

* Before the war, American intelligence officials said that they had a list of 14,000 sites where, they suspected, chemical or biological agents had been harboured, as well as the delivery systems to deploy them. A substantial number of those sites have been inspected by the invading troops. Evidence to date of a "grave and gathering" threat: precisely zero.

By ANDREW GUMBEL - Independent (UK)
04/13/03

---

** After the fall of Baghdad, warnings to Damascus were based on unverified complaints that weapons of mass destruction and Iraqi leaders had crossed the porous Iraqi-Syrian border. "There is no evidence," Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said last week, that such weapons were taken out of Iraq.

By ROBERT NOVAK
04/17/03

---

*** A White House source dismissed the idea that Saddam had sought refuge in Syria. ''No. He had his opportunity to leave the country," the source said Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity. ''He did not take it.'"

By MEG RICHARDS - Associated Press
04/10/03

----

Reader Comments

No Comments.

Citizine Home